Pareto - 80:20

The Tyndall Centre warns that UK has emitted a quarter of its carbon ration to 2050 in the last 5 years! So we are not yet doing enough to cut CO2 emissions — even though we are at the easy ‘top end’ of the curve. So any suggestion to relax future carbon targets for new development would seem to have no place in policy.

But Pareto’s Principle warns us against absolute targets: it anticipates that 20% effort achieves 80% of a goal but the last 20% of the goal demands 80% more effort. This debate considers whether the Principle might be a kick-start to UK’s stalling carbon cutting trajectory. It references current housing policy.

At the moment policy standards aspire to an absolute target of zero carbon new homes by 2016. But if costs follow Pareto – with 80% improvements readily afforded but the last 20% a stretch too far – then might funding the last step be better redirected towards older, less efficient, dwellings?

This debate was chaired by Paul King Chief, Executive of The UK Green Building Council. The motion to apply Pareto’s Principle to reformat housing policy was proposed by Paddy Conaghan and opposed by Chris Twinn.

Proposing the motion - Paper 1 (pdf)

Paddy Conaghan, Hoare Lea

Opposing the motion - Paper 2 (pdf)

Chris Twinn, Arup