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Edge Roundtable 191: Addressing long term risk in the built and natural environment

In recent years a far greater awareness of the need to factor risk into decision-making has taken root. In particular, the Covid 19 pandemic taught us the importance of anticipating and preparing for high impact but relatively low probability risks and ensuring that appropriate measures are put in place and then maintained with the express purpose of mitigating damage from, or even avoiding entirely, a wide range of possible future harms. 

In the built and natural environment where projects have lives measured in decades, if not centuries, there is a need to anticipate events and environmental conditions long into the future and with the likelihood that even low probability events will eventually occur , especially when factors such as climate change, damage to natural systems and even inadequate maintenance are taken into account. 

Risks include everything from cyber attacks, loss of financial confidence, infectious diseases and air pollution to breakdowns in infrastructure and supply chains as well as the more familiar dangers of flooding and overheating. Both short and long-term incidents can trigger rapid escalations of events resulting in widespread damage.

The sector needs to consider and factor in long-term risks when developing projects and in its advice and guidance to clients, investors and government. How should this be approached? What skills are needed - not only to design for climate change, but to actively plan for the full range of risk impacts in the years ahead?

The Roundtable addressed four key areas, with invited speakers on each, followed by a wider discusion. The topics are:

1.     Environmental and climate-based risk

2.     Infrastructure failure and outages

3.     Finance and insurance

4.     Designing for risk

We very much hope that you can join us on the 27th to participate in this Chatham House Rule discussion.  It is intended to lead to further debate, but, and more immediately, to an Edge Green Paper on the subject.

Venue:                                                            The Institution of Structural Engineers,

47-58 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PS

Time & date:    15.00 - 17.30, 27th November 2025  

References:

  • Chronic Risk Analysis, Cabinet Office, Government Office for Science and Foresight, July 2025 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6890acc9e8ba9507fc1b09a6/Chronic_Risks_Analysis__CRA_.pdf

  • Climate Change - A Risk Assessment, King D,. et al, (2015) - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/280881788_Climate_change_a_risk_assessment

  • UK Climate Risk Independent Assessment (CCRA3), UK Climate Risk (2021) - https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Independent-Assessment-of-UK-Climate-Risk-Advice-to-Govt-for-CCRA3-CCC.pdf

  • Preparing for Extreme Risks: Building a Resilient Society, House of Lords ((2021) - https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld5802/ldselect/ldrisk/110/110.pdf

  • National Risk Register, Cabinet Office (2025) - https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/67b5f85732b2aab18314bbe4/National_Risk_Register_2025.pdf

  • The concept of risk in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, IPCC, (2020), https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2021/02/Risk-guidance-FINAL_15Feb2021.pdf

  • UK Climate Resilience Roadmap, UKGBC, 2025, https://ukgbc.org/our-work/topics/resilience-roadmap/